Thanks to a great defensive play by Clint Barmes in the ninth inning, the Rockies picked up a win in the rubber match of the series with the Cardinals. Given the fact that the Rockies faced off against Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright in the first two games of the series, taking two of three was probably the best the Rockies could have hoped for, so the result's a good one.
Of course, the Braves don't plan on going away, and the Nationals are apparently perfectly happy to lie down (the Nats sat Adam Dunn for the final two games of the weekend series with the Braves.) While it's probably a reach to say that the Nationals are intentionally tanking to ensure themselves the first pick of the 2010 draft (they've been terrible all year, so it's kind of difficult to say they're tanking now), they're not going to do the Rockies any favors. With a three-game series at home against the Marlins, followed by a four-game closer against the Nats, the Braves could easily go 5-2 or 6-1 over the final week of the regular season. 7-0 isn't completely out of the question, but the Marlins are 8-7 against the Braves this year and it's hard to think they won't take at least one of three.
Thus the title of this post. Four wins. Four wins by the Rockies, and the Braves would have to run the table the rest of the way to force a playoff. If the Braves lose even one game, four wins will give the Rockies a playoff spot.
Starting pitching decisions over the final week of the season are obviously difficult. The Rockies have to balance the goals of setting up the playoff rotation, not overworking the starters, and making the playoffs; clearly, number three is the most important. Tuesday will be Jason Marquis's turn in the rotation; he's struggled a lot in September and might not be in the playoff rotation. The Rockies could start Jason Hammel instead, though they may plan on having him work long relief in the playoffs. Theoretically, Tuesday's starter would be the starting pitcher on Sunday, and would be pitching on regular rest in Game 2 of the NLDS.
Wednesday's starter could come back and pitch on short rest on Sunday. That's important, because Aaron Cook would be available on regular rest on Wednesday, and Ubaldo Jimenez would be available on short rest. Given Cook's recent DL stint, they probably won't want him taxing himself too much over the final week, so going with Jimenez twice on short rest is a real possibility. Can Ubaldo handle that kind of workload? Cook could then pitch on Thursday, on extra rest.
The biggest question mark is Friday's starter. Jorge de la Rosa can go on regular rest on Friday; alternatively, the Rockies could hold him back until Saturday and then have him pitch Game 1 of the NLDS on regular rest. Either Marquis or Hammel will be moved to the bullpen for the playoffs, and the one who isn't will start on Tuesday. The Rockies could go with Jose Contreras here, or they could go with one of the kids (Jhoulys Chacin? Esmil Rogers?) for a spot start. This would leave de la Rosa for Saturday, and presumably Jimenez for Sunday.
As for the opposing starters: the Rockies will likely face Chris Narveson, Jeff Suppan, and Manny Parra in the series against the Brewers; Narveson is inexperienced, while Suppan and Parra have been pretty bad this year. It's hard to see the Rockies not taking two of three, minimum, but they've struggled with worse teams than the Brewers over the last month. A sweep would be even better; that would leave the Rockies needing only one win in L.A. over the weekend. The Dodgers, with a playoff spot wrapped up, will be setting up their playoff rotation, and it's tough to tell who they'll throw out there in that series.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Rockies struggling to keep Braves at bay
Over the past few weeks, we've been operating under the assumption that the Rockies would need to hold off the Giants for the wild card. That's happening. The Giants, who have lost five of eight since Jorge shut them down on the 18th, are fading, and they're no longer a real threat to overtake the Rockies.
But the Braves, on the other hand... Excuse me for thinking the Braves were dead. On September 6, the Braves lost a 12-inning game to drop their season record to 70-67, and they sat seven games behind the Rockies in the wild card race. There was certainly time to make up the deficit, but it didn't look particularly likely. Fast forward 20 days, and the Rockies are in solid shape at 87-67. The Braves have caught fire and now sit three games back, after a 14-3 stretch that's pulled them within shouting distance of the wild card lead.
So, it's certainly helped the Braves that they haven't had a difficult schedule. They've played six games against the Mets, who have pretty much packed it in already (the Braves won all six), and three against the Astros (they won two of those.) They've played two against the Nationals, and will play them five more times before the season ends. The Nationals appear mostly intent on winning the Bryce Harper Sweepstakes and probably would be happy to give the Braves a few more wins. But the Braves also swept the Cardinals in three games in St. Louis. Aside from losing two of three to the Phillies, the Braves have been the hottest team in baseball over the last couple of weeks. It would be a pretty cruel twist of irony to see the Rockies lose the wild card to another team that got really hot over the last few weeks of the season.
Of course, the Rockies have nothing to worry about if they take care of business themselves over the eight-game finishing kick. The good news is that the Rockies play five more at Coors: two more against the Cardinals, and three against the Brewers. The bad news is that those teams (and the Dodgers, who the Rockies will visit on the final weekend of the season) will put up much more of a fight than the Nationals are likely to. While it seems like the Rockies have struggled over the last week and a half, they've actually gone 5-3 over the last eight games. Duplicate that record over the finishing stretch, and the worst thing that can happen is that they'll be in a tie for the wild card -- and for that to happen, the Braves would have to win all eight of their remaining games.
But the Braves, on the other hand... Excuse me for thinking the Braves were dead. On September 6, the Braves lost a 12-inning game to drop their season record to 70-67, and they sat seven games behind the Rockies in the wild card race. There was certainly time to make up the deficit, but it didn't look particularly likely. Fast forward 20 days, and the Rockies are in solid shape at 87-67. The Braves have caught fire and now sit three games back, after a 14-3 stretch that's pulled them within shouting distance of the wild card lead.
So, it's certainly helped the Braves that they haven't had a difficult schedule. They've played six games against the Mets, who have pretty much packed it in already (the Braves won all six), and three against the Astros (they won two of those.) They've played two against the Nationals, and will play them five more times before the season ends. The Nationals appear mostly intent on winning the Bryce Harper Sweepstakes and probably would be happy to give the Braves a few more wins. But the Braves also swept the Cardinals in three games in St. Louis. Aside from losing two of three to the Phillies, the Braves have been the hottest team in baseball over the last couple of weeks. It would be a pretty cruel twist of irony to see the Rockies lose the wild card to another team that got really hot over the last few weeks of the season.
Of course, the Rockies have nothing to worry about if they take care of business themselves over the eight-game finishing kick. The good news is that the Rockies play five more at Coors: two more against the Cardinals, and three against the Brewers. The bad news is that those teams (and the Dodgers, who the Rockies will visit on the final weekend of the season) will put up much more of a fight than the Nationals are likely to. While it seems like the Rockies have struggled over the last week and a half, they've actually gone 5-3 over the last eight games. Duplicate that record over the finishing stretch, and the worst thing that can happen is that they'll be in a tie for the wild card -- and for that to happen, the Braves would have to win all eight of their remaining games.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Holliday returns to Coors Field
Aaron Cook will be starting for the Colorado Rockies tonight, making his first appearance in over a month. But that isn't the biggest story of tonight's game.
No, the return of Matt Holliday is an even bigger story. I shouldn't have to recap how much Holliday meant to the Rockies during his five years with the club. Holliday hit 128 homers in a Rockies uniform, sixth on the franchise's all-time list (after the Blake Street Bombers and some guy named Helton), finished second in MVP voting in 2007, and was the key player on the Rockies' 2007 World Series team.
It will be a bit odd to see Holliday in Coors Field wearing a St. Louis Cardinals uniform, wearing number 15, but Holliday deserves a standing ovation from the crowd during his first at bat. While some may be bitter about the way the contract extension negotiations were handled -- those negotiations ultimately leading to a trade, as the Rockies realized they had almost no shot at retaining Holliday beyond 2009 -- I can't really blame Holliday for wanting to be paid in line with what his talent demands. Holliday's departure had more to do with the Rockies being unwilling to pay fair market value for him rather than any unreasonable demands that he was making.
I know that the questions are inevitable: as good as the Rockies have turned out to be this season, how good would they be if they still had Holliday? My honest answer is that I think the impact on the team's record would be negligible. At the time of the trade, I thought the Rockies were getting fair value for Holliday, and that view has been vindicated over the season. As good as Holliday is, Carlos Gonzalez has been pretty good this year. While the Rockies' offense would be better with Holliday in left field, and Gonzalez's superior defensive value doesn't make up for that loss, where would the Rockies be without Huston Street? The rest of the Rockies' bullpen has been pretty shaky; without Street around to nail things down in the ninth, the Rockies might have a couple more losses in there -- in fact, potentially the difference between making the playoffs and missing the playoffs. And beyond 2009, Carlos Gonzalez will be roaming the outfield at Coors for a few more years; the same can't be said for Holliday, who likely would have left as a free agent.
As for the game tonight -- Cook really needs to show something. For a few weeks following the All-Star break, up until he was injured in August, Cook just wasn't very good. That needs to change; the Rockies have gotten too many bad pitching performances over the last week to be able to weather another one from Cook.
No, the return of Matt Holliday is an even bigger story. I shouldn't have to recap how much Holliday meant to the Rockies during his five years with the club. Holliday hit 128 homers in a Rockies uniform, sixth on the franchise's all-time list (after the Blake Street Bombers and some guy named Helton), finished second in MVP voting in 2007, and was the key player on the Rockies' 2007 World Series team.
It will be a bit odd to see Holliday in Coors Field wearing a St. Louis Cardinals uniform, wearing number 15, but Holliday deserves a standing ovation from the crowd during his first at bat. While some may be bitter about the way the contract extension negotiations were handled -- those negotiations ultimately leading to a trade, as the Rockies realized they had almost no shot at retaining Holliday beyond 2009 -- I can't really blame Holliday for wanting to be paid in line with what his talent demands. Holliday's departure had more to do with the Rockies being unwilling to pay fair market value for him rather than any unreasonable demands that he was making.
I know that the questions are inevitable: as good as the Rockies have turned out to be this season, how good would they be if they still had Holliday? My honest answer is that I think the impact on the team's record would be negligible. At the time of the trade, I thought the Rockies were getting fair value for Holliday, and that view has been vindicated over the season. As good as Holliday is, Carlos Gonzalez has been pretty good this year. While the Rockies' offense would be better with Holliday in left field, and Gonzalez's superior defensive value doesn't make up for that loss, where would the Rockies be without Huston Street? The rest of the Rockies' bullpen has been pretty shaky; without Street around to nail things down in the ninth, the Rockies might have a couple more losses in there -- in fact, potentially the difference between making the playoffs and missing the playoffs. And beyond 2009, Carlos Gonzalez will be roaming the outfield at Coors for a few more years; the same can't be said for Holliday, who likely would have left as a free agent.
As for the game tonight -- Cook really needs to show something. For a few weeks following the All-Star break, up until he was injured in August, Cook just wasn't very good. That needs to change; the Rockies have gotten too many bad pitching performances over the last week to be able to weather another one from Cook.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Tracy needs to get back to what works
Why did the Rockies begin playing better once Clint Hurdle was fired and Jim Tracy took over? That's a difficult question to answer. Several Rockies started playing better after slumping for much of April and May, and that just happened to coincide with Tracy's elevation to manager. But one thing that Tracy did was to start using a consistent starting lineup.
Okay, Tracy didn't exactly send the same eight guys (plus pitcher) out there every single day. But he did start being more consistent with the team's daily lineups. Ian Stewart was allowed to stick at third base, rather than shifting between second and third. That meant that Clint Barmes was allowed to play every day. In the outfield, Tracy began playing Gonzalez, Fowler, and Hawpe most of the time, giving Spilborghs a few starts against lefties and giving Seth Smith the occasional start as well.
And now? While injuries have had something to do with it, Tracy's been shuffling his lineups around a lot over the last couple of weeks. Tracy is falling into the same trap that Hurdle was: we have four outfielders who should be starting, so let's try to give all of them some starts instead of just sticking with the same guys every day. On paper, it seems like a decent idea; after all, everybody gets some rest along the way, and we can bench or play guys based on who's hitting well. Yet paradoxically, it seems to have the opposite effect. If a guy knows that he might wind up on the bench after a bad game or two, he's going to press... and he's not going to play as well. And somewhat strangely, the one outfielder who seems to be the most entrenched, Brad Hawpe, is having an awful month.
Okay, Tracy didn't exactly send the same eight guys (plus pitcher) out there every single day. But he did start being more consistent with the team's daily lineups. Ian Stewart was allowed to stick at third base, rather than shifting between second and third. That meant that Clint Barmes was allowed to play every day. In the outfield, Tracy began playing Gonzalez, Fowler, and Hawpe most of the time, giving Spilborghs a few starts against lefties and giving Seth Smith the occasional start as well.
And now? While injuries have had something to do with it, Tracy's been shuffling his lineups around a lot over the last couple of weeks. Tracy is falling into the same trap that Hurdle was: we have four outfielders who should be starting, so let's try to give all of them some starts instead of just sticking with the same guys every day. On paper, it seems like a decent idea; after all, everybody gets some rest along the way, and we can bench or play guys based on who's hitting well. Yet paradoxically, it seems to have the opposite effect. If a guy knows that he might wind up on the bench after a bad game or two, he's going to press... and he's not going to play as well. And somewhat strangely, the one outfielder who seems to be the most entrenched, Brad Hawpe, is having an awful month.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Off-day fodder: Why isn't Dex playing?
It's not a cardinal rule of baseball. There's nothing that says that a player cannot lose his starting job because of an injury (aside, obviously, from the time when he's actually injured.) There are plenty of players in all sports who have gotten hurt, then come back only to find that another player had played so well in his absence that he's no longer a starter. (Tom Brady, anyone?)
With that said, it's difficult to understand the Rockies' logic behind benching Dexter Fowler since he returned from the disabled list. While Dex's playing time isn't at Omar Quintanilla levels, he's only made three starts in the month of September. I understand the desire to play the hot bats, especially in a playoff run, but it's hard to suggest that Fowler hasn't been hot. While he's hitting just .250 in September, he hit .361 -- with a .623 SLG -- in August. That September BA is based on just 16 official at bats, as well.
As if the logic needed more clouding, the bats the Rockies have been playing in place of Fowler aren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball. Seth Smith is hitting well right now, but Carlos Gonzalez has been so-so lately -- he's hitting .247 in September after, like Fowler, killing the ball in August. And Brad Hawpe is struggling. He's hitting a paltry .154 for the month. After an All-Star first half, Hawpe's clearly come down quite a lot since the break, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him traded during the offseason.
Which brings me back to Fowler. Carlos Gonzalez is young and has a ton of potential, but Smith is older than you might think (he'll be 27 later this month.) While he's had a good year, this is realistically about as good as we can expect him to be as he's already close to his peak. Hawpe is now 30, and players of his type -- power hitters with bad gloves and below-average speed -- fall off more quickly than you might think. It's very possible that Hawpe's second half is the start of a trend, not just a mere slump, and it's also possible that he won't be in a Rockies uniform next year. Dex oozes potential, and he needs to get playing time. So why not play him some more?
With that said, it's difficult to understand the Rockies' logic behind benching Dexter Fowler since he returned from the disabled list. While Dex's playing time isn't at Omar Quintanilla levels, he's only made three starts in the month of September. I understand the desire to play the hot bats, especially in a playoff run, but it's hard to suggest that Fowler hasn't been hot. While he's hitting just .250 in September, he hit .361 -- with a .623 SLG -- in August. That September BA is based on just 16 official at bats, as well.
As if the logic needed more clouding, the bats the Rockies have been playing in place of Fowler aren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball. Seth Smith is hitting well right now, but Carlos Gonzalez has been so-so lately -- he's hitting .247 in September after, like Fowler, killing the ball in August. And Brad Hawpe is struggling. He's hitting a paltry .154 for the month. After an All-Star first half, Hawpe's clearly come down quite a lot since the break, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him traded during the offseason.
Which brings me back to Fowler. Carlos Gonzalez is young and has a ton of potential, but Smith is older than you might think (he'll be 27 later this month.) While he's had a good year, this is realistically about as good as we can expect him to be as he's already close to his peak. Hawpe is now 30, and players of his type -- power hitters with bad gloves and below-average speed -- fall off more quickly than you might think. It's very possible that Hawpe's second half is the start of a trend, not just a mere slump, and it's also possible that he won't be in a Rockies uniform next year. Dex oozes potential, and he needs to get playing time. So why not play him some more?
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